The third wave of Covid-19: A myth or a reality

The second wave of Covid-19 was bad and as per experts, the third wave will be even worse. The second wave came and spread too fast and within a short time took away many of the loved ones. Seeing people suffering all around there was an atmosphere of fear and insecurity in people’s minds. What if it will happen to our loved ones?  Whether we will get a bed in the hospital? and so on. As a result, the government forced a lockdown that helped in containing the spread of the virus. This helped in containing the virus and by June things were looking much better.

A week back most of the people in the country including our Prime minister were taken aback after seeing pictures of vacationers crowding the mall in Manali and bathing in Kempty falls in Mussoorie. How can people be so careless? As a country, we are making good progress as far as vaccinations are concerned. However the destination is still far and the momentum needs to pick up.

Experts have been warning that we should not become complacent and throw the precautions to the wind. A third wave may engulf us very soon and this time the ones who have not been vaccinated and the younger lot will be at a greater risk. But seeing the second wave receding and normalcy returning, it seems that people have forgotten that their life ever got impacted by covid-19.

Has the third wave impacted any country?

Russia had recently organized an International Economic Forum in St Petersburg. It was early June when the Russian President while addressing thousands of guests at the forum did some chest-thumping. He claimed that the situation in Russia has stabilized and that is the reason it can hold such events at such a large scale.

On the other hand, the Russian doctors had been witnessing an alarming rise in covid-19 infections as well as deaths. A month later from the President’s address and Russia was in the midst of a third wave and a severe one. The number of infections currently is around 25,000 and rising. Though compared to Britain the number of infections is still less but in terms of daily deaths, Russia is seeing 670 vis-à-vis 18 of Britain.

Advantage Russia: The Sputnik vaccine

The biggest question that comes to mind is that Russia was one of the first countries to approve a vaccine called Sputnik. Sputnik is based on the same science as the Astra Zeneca vaccine of Britain. The Serum Institute is producing the Astra-Zeneca vaccine in India and now Dr Reddy’s Laboratories has joined hands with Gamaleya Research of Russian to produce Sputnik vaccine in India. The Indian authorities have given an emergency use authorization to Sputnik in India.

Surprisingly, while Britain has vaccinated 78% of its population with at last one jab, Russia has vaccinated only 20%. The reason for low vaccination in Russia is not the availability or efficacy of the vaccine but the trust in the government and its vaccines. The Russian government has faltered on many fronts. A year ago the Russian President decided to lift a partial lockdown just to gain popularity. While Europeans were facing a second wave late Autumn last year, Russians were enjoying dinners at restaurants and shopping at malls.

It was Feb 2021 when the death toll started increasing in Russia. The authorities reported a modest death toll of 85,00 though in actual numbers it was more than 460,000 deaths. The low official death toll numbers gave the government a false sense of security.

The third wave could have been avoided

The time that could have been utilized after the second wave to vaccinate people were wasted. The government was busy handling internal matters like the jailing of Alexei Navalny, an opposition leader whom President Vladimir Putin considers a threat. On the other hand, the President called for a big celebration of 80,000 people into the Luzhniki stadium in Moscow on the 7^th anniversary of the annexation of Crimea.

This led the Russians to believe that the social distancing was just a ploy of the government to keep them away. Also, they were skeptical about the vaccine Sputnik as it was authorized before the phase-3 launch and there were doubts raised on its efficacy. The result is that Russia is witnessing a third wave that is even worse than the first two.

Indonesia is in the same boat as India was

South-East Asia is currently drowning in a tsunami of covid-19. It’s difficult to say which wave is this as the entire region had much lower cases when the rest of the world was fighting the first and the second wave. However, a low rate of vaccination with limited testing and the arrival of the Delta variant has resulted in a surge in infections. Cambodia, Thailand, Vietnam are reporting daily cases that seem just going upwards. Malaysia has the highest caseload relative to population vis-à-vis the rest of the countries.

The country that is seeing the highest number of cases in Asia after India is Indonesia. Since early July, the country has had the world’s third-highest number of daily cases taken as an average of seven days. Brazil and India are the two countries that have seen more suffering. The daily infections have grown eightfold over the past month, hitting a high of 38000 cases on July 9^th.

Running short on Oxygen

In similarity to India, the healthcare system in Indonesia is cracking under load. Hospitals are full. Oxygen supplies are running dangerously low. In Java, where most Indonesians live and most cases are found, hospitals are refusing to admit patients. On July 3^rd dozens of covid patients died at a public hospital in Yogyakarta as it ran out of oxygen supply. Was it not the same in India in April and May. And the way people in India are behaving the third wave is not far away.

Doctors have to make a difficult choice of choosing which patients will live and which will die. The Indonesian health minister has requested people with mild symtoms to home quarantine. The rapid spike in cases and the collapse of the healthcare system has invited comparisons with India. But Indonesia can suffer even more as it has just 0.4 doctors for every 1000 people. This is less than half the ratio in India.

Factors that contributed to the spike

The government failed to impose a full lockdown for fear of paralyzing the economy. The government restrictions were poorly imposed. During Eid celebrations in May, 1.5 million people traveled home flouting a govt ban on travel. The result was that many infected people carried the Delta variant from cities to villages. Today the countryside is reporting 90% of the cases.

Realising that the situation is getting out of control, the government increased the pace of vaccination. Nearly 95% of the health workers were vaccinated with a shot from Sinovac, a Chinese firm. But Sinovac has proved less effective than other vaccines as several healthcare workers (10%) tested positive despite getting the jab.

The government has sprung into action. House of worships, Malls, and restaurants have been closed down. Work from home for all non-essential workers is now a must. Big roads in some cities have been blocked. In neighbouring Thailand, the government has decided to use Astra-Zeneca vaccination as the second dose to those who got Sinovac as the first one. The idea is to increase vaccination.

The only way to avoid a third wave is to follow the same safety protocols. And also vaccination has to be a priority.

Acknowledgment: The Economist issue dated 3^rd July 2021

You can read more such stories on this subject. Click on the following link:

Vaccinating people is the only winning move in a game of chess

The pain of losing the loved ones: An injury that will never heal

https://www.economist.com/weeklyedition/2021-07-10